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Will the FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei) poll at 5% or higher in the next INSA 'Sonntagsfrage' for BILD?

50%
opening odds · YesAI opening line
YES 50%NO 50%

Fully refundable

Money backOpening P2P pool: the first stake is refundable until another user takes the opposite side. Real profit estimates appear once both pools have money.

Live odds movement

YES probability over time · green segments moved up, red segments moved down.

Now 50% Yes0 pts range
Open
50%
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Now
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YES odds chart ending at 50%
Aug 20Aug 27

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Awaiting the other side · fully refundable
New
Volume
3d left
Closes
Aug 31, 12:00 AM UTC
After close
Settlement
Target Aug 31, 01:00 AM UTC

About this market

Exact market question

Will the FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei) poll at 5% or higher in the next INSA 'Sonntagsfrage' for BILD?

Background

As national political tensions rise, the FDP has been hovering near the critical 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag. The upcoming INSA opinion poll, typically published by BILD on Mondays or Tuesdays, will indicate if the party is regaining momentum or facing an existential threat. This market resolves YES if the FDP is shown at 5.0% or higher in the first INSA poll released after August 26.

How it settles

This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.

Open official source

Tie, draw, or no clear result

Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.

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