Will the upcoming ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll show the AfD as the strongest party in eastern Germany (new federal states)?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll show the AfD as the strongest party in eastern Germany (new federal states)?
Background
Recent state elections and national polling suggest a massive divide between East and West. With federal elections approaching, the 'Sonntagsfrage' breakdown by region is a critical indicator of the AfD's regional dominance. This bet resolves YES if the ARD-DeutschlandTrend released between Sept 10-18 shows the AfD with the highest percentage among all parties specifically in the 'Ost' (East) category.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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