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Will the City of Johannesburg's Executive Mayor Gwamanda remain in office through September 15, 2026?

42%
opening odds · YesAI opening line
YES 42%NO 58%

Fully refundable

Money backOpening P2P pool: the first stake is refundable until another user takes the opposite side. Real profit estimates appear once both pools have money.

Live odds movement

YES probability over time · green segments moved up, red segments moved down.

Now 42% Yes0 pts range
Open
42%
Low
42%
High
42%
Now
42%
100%50%0%
YES odds chart ending at 42%
Sep 2Sep 9

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No recorded movement yet. Showing current odds until the market trades.

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Awaiting the other side · fully refundable
New
Volume
4d left
Closes
Sep 14, 12:00 AM UTC
After close
Settlement
Target Sep 14, 01:00 AM UTC

About this market

Exact market question

Will the City of Johannesburg's Executive Mayor Gwamanda remain in office through September 15, 2026?

Background

Following ongoing coalition instability in South Africa's largest metro, rumors of a fresh vote of no confidence or a negotiated resignation have circulated among the ANC, DA, and ActionSA. The market monitors whether the current Executive Mayor is officially replaced or removed by the City Council before the resolution date. It resolves YES if Kabelo Gwamanda is still the seated Mayor on September 15.

How it settles

This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.

Open official source

Tie, draw, or no clear result

Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.

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