Will the upcoming ARD Deutschlandtrend poll show the Green Party (Die Grünen) at 12% or higher?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming ARD Deutschlandtrend poll show the Green Party (Die Grünen) at 12% or higher?
Background
The Green Party has seen fluctuating poll numbers amidst internal debates regarding climate policy and migration. With the 'Traffic Light' coalition under constant scrutiny, this specific poll result will indicate if their core base is stabilizing or eroding further. This market resolves YES if the 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday Question) in the first September ARD Deutschlandtrend poll shows 12.0% or more for the Greens.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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