Will the upcoming FGW Politbarometer show the SPD at 16% or higher in national voter intention?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming FGW Politbarometer show the SPD at 16% or higher in national voter intention?
Background
As the 2025 federal election cycle approaches, the SPD is struggling to regain ground against the CDU/CSU and the AfD. The Politbarometer by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen is a highly respected indicator of the German political mood. This market hinges on whether Chancellor Scholz's party can show a slight recovery or stabilization in the next major survey release.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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