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Will the UK Liberal Democrats announce a formal policy to 'rejoin the EU Single Market' during their Autumn Conference starting September 14, 2026?

50%
opening odds · YesAI opening line
YES 50%NO 50%

Fully refundable

Money backOpening P2P pool: the first stake is refundable until another user takes the opposite side. Real profit estimates appear once both pools have money.

Live odds movement

YES probability over time · green segments moved up, red segments moved down.

Now 50% Yes0 pts range
Open
50%
Low
50%
High
50%
Now
50%
100%50%0%
YES odds chart ending at 50%
Sep 4Sep 11

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Awaiting the other side · fully refundable
New
Volume
2d left
Closes
Sep 14, 12:00 AM UTC
After close
Settlement
Target Sep 14, 01:00 AM UTC

About this market

Exact market question

Will the UK Liberal Democrats announce a formal policy to 'rejoin the EU Single Market' during their Autumn Conference starting September 14, 2026?

Background

The Liberal Democrat Autumn Conference in Brighton is a key moment for the party to define its distance from the Labour government. While the party has historically been pro-EU, leadership has recently focused on 'step-by-step' reintegration. A shift to a formal, immediate pledge to rejoin the Single Market would mark a significant hardening of their Brexit stance.

How it settles

This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.

Open official source

Tie, draw, or no clear result

Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.

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