Will the upcoming ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll (September 2026) show the BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) with 9% or more of the vote?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll (September 2026) show the BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) with 9% or more of the vote?
Background
The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) has become a significant disruptive force in German politics, especially in the lead-up to state and federal elections. As of late August 2026, the party's performance in the 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday Question) is a key indicator of its potential to play kingmaker in future coalitions. This market resolves YES if the first ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll released in September 2026 reports the party's support at 9.0% or higher.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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