Will the upcoming ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll show the SPD's approval rating for Chancellor Olaf Scholz at 20% or higher?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll show the SPD's approval rating for Chancellor Olaf Scholz at 20% or higher?
Background
As of late August 2026, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the SPD are facing significant pressure due to budget disputes and low approval ratings. The upcoming DeutschlandTrend poll by Infratest dimap is a critical barometer for the government's standing. The market resolves to YES if the 'satisfaction with the work of Olaf Scholz' metric reaches or exceeds 20%.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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