Will the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that UK Average Weekly Earnings (including bonuses) grew by 4.2% or more in its September 15 release?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that UK Average Weekly Earnings (including bonuses) grew by 4.2% or more in its September 15 release?
Background
The UK labor market remains a focal point for the Bank of England as it weighs further interest rate cuts. This ONS release covers the three months to July 2026, and persistent wage growth could signal that domestic inflationary pressures are not yet fully contained. The market resolves YES if the 'Average weekly earnings (including bonuses)' year-on-year growth rate is 4.2% or higher.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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