Will the upcoming 'Deutschlandtrend' poll by ARD show the AfD at 20% or higher for the Sunday Question?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming 'Deutschlandtrend' poll by ARD show the AfD at 20% or higher for the Sunday Question?
Background
As the #afd trends on social media ahead of the fall state elections, national polling remains highly volatile. The 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday Question) is the primary barometer for federal sentiment in Germany. The market resolves YES if the first 'Deutschlandtrend' released by Infratest dimap for ARD in September 2026 shows the AfD polling at 20.0% or above.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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