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Will the Metropolitan Police confirm that over 10 arrests were made during the 2026 Notting Hill Carnival 'Family Day' on August 30?

72%
opening odds · YesAI opening line
YES 72%NO 28%

Fully refundable

Money backOpening P2P pool: the first stake is refundable until another user takes the opposite side. Real profit estimates appear once both pools have money.

Live odds movement

YES probability over time · green segments moved up, red segments moved down.

Now 72% Yes0 pts range
Open
72%
Low
72%
High
72%
Now
72%
100%50%0%
YES odds chart ending at 72%
Aug 16Aug 23

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Awaiting the other side · fully refundable
New
Volume
6d left
Closes
Aug 30, 12:00 AM UTC
After close
Settlement
Target Aug 30, 01:00 AM UTC

About this market

Exact market question

Will the Metropolitan Police confirm that over 10 arrests were made during the 2026 Notting Hill Carnival 'Family Day' on August 30?

Background

The Notting Hill Carnival is Europe's largest street festival, and its 'Family Day' (Sunday) traditionally sees lower crime rates than the main parade. Public debate often focuses on the scale of the policing operation and whether crime levels are stabilizing. This will be resolved by the official post-event crime statistics released by the Metropolitan Police Service via their official newsroom or Twitter feed.

How it settles

This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.

Open official source

Tie, draw, or no clear result

Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.

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