Will the upcoming ARD Deutschlandtrend poll show the 'Traffic Light' coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) with a combined support of 33% or more?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming ARD Deutschlandtrend poll show the 'Traffic Light' coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) with a combined support of 33% or more?
Background
The 'Ampel-Koalition' has faced significant internal friction regarding the 2027 budget and migration policies. As the federal election cycle nears, local voters are tracking whether the governing parties can maintain a combined third of the electorate's support. The market resolves based on the next 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday Question) published by Infratest dimap for ARD's Tagesschau.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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