Will the upcoming ARD-DeutschlandTrend survey show the CDU/CSU with a voter preference of 32% or higher?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming ARD-DeutschlandTrend survey show the CDU/CSU with a voter preference of 32% or higher?
Background
As the largest opposition bloc, the Union (CDU/CSU) has been consistently leading polls, but their momentum fluctuates based on leadership debates and coalition speculation. The next major DeutschlandTrend poll by Infratest dimap is expected in early September. This market resolves to YES if the 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday Question) for the Union is 32.0% or greater.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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