Will the CDU hold a lead of 10 or more percentage points over the AfD in the next Forsa 'Sonntagsfrage' poll?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the CDU hold a lead of 10 or more percentage points over the AfD in the next Forsa 'Sonntagsfrage' poll?
Background
As national political tension rises around #merz and the #cdu, recent polling shows the Union maintaining a significant lead over the #afd. The next Forsa institute survey for RTL/n-tv will determine if Friedrich Merz's party can sustain a double-digit gap as the primary opposition force. The market resolves YES if the difference between CDU/CSU and AfD percentages is >= 10.0.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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