Will the upcoming 'Deutschlandtrend' poll by ARD show the SPD at 16% or higher for the Sunday Question?
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the upcoming 'Deutschlandtrend' poll by ARD show the SPD at 16% or higher for the Sunday Question?
Background
As the federal election cycle nears its final year, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD is struggling in the polls. Recent surveys have seen them fluctuate between 14% and 17%, and the next ARD-Deutschlandtrend (Infratest dimap) is highly anticipated for gauging if the party's recent policy pivots are gaining traction with voters. The market resolves to YES if the 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday Question) percentage for the SPD is 16.0% or higher.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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