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Will the AfD become the strongest party in the 2026 Saxony State Election according to the preliminary official results?

52%
opening odds · YesAI opening line
YES 52%NO 48%

Fully refundable

Money backOpening P2P pool: the first stake is refundable until another user takes the opposite side. Real profit estimates appear once both pools have money.

Live odds movement

YES probability over time · green segments moved up, red segments moved down.

Now 52% Yes0 pts range
Open
52%
Low
52%
High
52%
Now
52%
100%50%0%
YES odds chart ending at 52%
Aug 19Aug 26

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Awaiting the other side · fully refundable
New
Volume
3d left
Closes
Aug 30, 12:00 AM UTC
After close
Settlement
Target Aug 30, 01:00 AM UTC

About this market

Exact market question

Will the AfD become the strongest party in the 2026 Saxony State Election according to the preliminary official results?

Background

The Free State of Saxony is heading to the polls on August 30, 2026. Current polling shows a tight neck-and-neck race between the incumbent CDU and the AfD, which has seen surging popularity in eastern Germany. This market resolves to YES if the AfD receives the highest percentage of second votes (Zweitstimmen) in the preliminary results released by the State Returning Officer.

How it settles

This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.

Open official source

Tie, draw, or no clear result

Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.

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