Will Friedrich Merz be officially confirmed as the CDU/CSU 'Kanzlerkandidat' (Chancellor Candidate) by September 15, 2026?
Fully refundable
Money backOpening P2P pool: the first stake is refundable until another user takes the opposite side. Real profit estimates appear once both pools have money.
Live odds movement
YES probability over time · green segments moved up, red segments moved down.
Drag left or right to inspect · swipe up or down to scroll the page
No recorded movement yet. Showing current odds until the market trades.
About this market
Exact market question
Will Friedrich Merz be officially confirmed as the CDU/CSU 'Kanzlerkandidat' (Chancellor Candidate) by September 15, 2026?
Background
As the 2026 Federal Election cycle approaches, internal discussions between the CDU and CSU leadership regarding the joint candidate are intensifying. While Friedrich Merz is the current party leader, historical rivalries with the CSU often lead to late-summer negotiations. This market resolves YES if an official joint press release or public declaration from both party boards confirms Merz as the candidate by the deadline.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
Recent Live activity
Loading…
Related news
Finding current context…
Discussion
Share your reasoning, compare perspectives, and revisit the result together.
Sign in to join the discussionNo comments yet. Be the first to call it.