How prediction markets price the future

The wisdom of the crowd

Prediction markets turn opinions into prices. When you buy a YES share at 42 cents, you are saying the event is roughly 42% likely — and so is everyone else trading alongside you.

Why prices beat pundits

Markets aggregate thousands of small judgments, each backed by real stakes. That incentive to be right makes the blended price a remarkably accurate forecast.

How to read the odds

• A price of 0.50 means a coin-flip.
• Prices drift toward 1.00 as an outcome becomes likely.
• Volume tells you how much conviction sits behind the number.

Start small, watch how the price moves, and learn to spot when the crowd is wrong.