Back to Marketsenvironment

Will the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issue a 'Red Alert' for extremely heavy rainfall in any district of Kerala for the period August 1 to August 7, 2026?

42%
opening odds · YesAI opening line
YES 42%NO 58%

Fully refundable

Money backOpening P2P pool: the first stake is refundable until another user takes the opposite side. Real profit estimates appear once both pools have money.

Live odds movement

YES probability over time · green segments moved up, red segments moved down.

Now 42% Yes0 pts range
Open
42%
Low
42%
High
42%
Now
42%
100%50%0%
YES odds chart ending at 42%
Jul 22Jul 29

Drag left or right to inspect · swipe up or down to scroll the page

No recorded movement yet. Showing current odds until the market trades.

Up Down
Awaiting the other side · fully refundable
New
Volume
1d left
Closes
Jul 31, 12:00 AM UTC
After close
Settlement
Target Jul 31, 01:00 AM UTC

About this market

Exact market question

Will the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issue a 'Red Alert' for extremely heavy rainfall in any district of Kerala for the period August 1 to August 7, 2026?

Background

The Southwest Monsoon typically peaks in intensity across the Western Ghats during late July and early August. Kerala often faces severe weather warnings during this window, leading to significant administrative preparation and public concern regarding flooding and landslides. The market resolves YES if the IMD's daily bulletin for Kerala includes a Red Alert (rainfall > 204.4 mm) for any district during the specified week.

How it settles

This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.

Open official source

Tie, draw, or no clear result

Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.

Recent Live activity

Loading…

Finding current context…

Invite friends to this prediction

WhatsApp Text

Discussion

Share your reasoning, compare perspectives, and revisit the result together.

Sign in to join the discussion

No comments yet. Be the first to call it.