Will the Bank of England announce a base rate cut in its July 2026 Monetary Policy Report?
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YES probability over time · green segments moved up, red segments moved down.
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About this market
Exact market question
Will the Bank of England announce a base rate cut in its July 2026 Monetary Policy Report?
Background
UK inflation data released yesterday has sparked a surge in searches for 'BoE interest rate forecast' and 'mortgage rates July 2026.' This market resolves to YES if the Bank of England officially lowers the Bank Rate from its current level during the July meeting. Economists are currently split 50/50 on whether the Bank will prioritize growth or wait for further cooling of the services sector.
Trending: Bank of England rate decision, UK inflation July 2026, GBP exchange rate.
How it settles
This legacy market has no separate published settlement rule. It cannot settle automatically unless objective evidence clearly maps the result to YES or NO.
Open official sourceTie, draw, or no clear result
Published settlement criteria come first. An uncovered tie, draw, cancellation, or other result is not assigned YES or NO by default; it is reviewed against the question and objective evidence. If no fair mapping can be established, the market may be voided and all stakes refunded in full with no fee.
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